Dilution-proof

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Jan 03 2022

COC#8: Bitcoin’s 2021 Review Using On-Chain And Price Related Data

A look back at 2021’s most important events and on-chain trends for bitcoin’s price action, as well as a brief look forward into 2022.Cycling On-Chain is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent bitcoin market movements. This eighth edition provides a year in review for 2021 and then assesses what current trends look like going into...

Dec 01 2021

COC#7: The Bitcoin Market Hangs Between Hope And Fear

How the Mt. Gox rehab plan and Omicron emergence act as a sword of Damocles above otherwise splendid on-chain supply dynamics.December 1, 2021Cycling On- Chain is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent bitcoin market movements and estimate where we are in the cycle. This seventh edition first addresses several on-chain and derivatives- related...

Nov 01 2021

COC#6: “Smart Money” Is Front-Running Retail

The bitcoin futures ETF launch is fueling a contango trade that is luring Wall Street in, and retail investors are absent or distracted.November 1, 2021Cycling On-Chain is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent bitcoin market movements and estimate where we are in the cycle. This sixth edition discusses the impact of the newly launched...

Oct 25 2021

Valuing Bitcoin Based On HODLer Behavior

Introducing the Market-Value-to-Long-term-holder-Value (MVLV) and Market- Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV) Bands on-chain metrics.October 25, 2021Defining MoneyAfter 12 years of adoption, the concept of bitcoin as digital money is now widely known. Ironically, when learning about bitcoin, many individuals are forced to (re)consider what money is. One example of a definition that they may run...

Oct 13 2021

Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Bands

Modeling the bitcoin price based on the value of all coins when they last moved on-chain.October 12th, 2021Realized ValueOn September 23, 2018, at the Baltic Honeybadger conference in Riga, Latvia, Nic Carter presented the concept of realized value (originally “realized cap,”...

Oct 02 2021

COC#5: How January’s On-Chain Footprint Bent The Bitcoin Price Trend Twice

A closer look at how the on-chain footprint of bitcoin investors changed in January and how that set a floor price for the recent market downturn.Dilution-proof, October 1st, 2021Cycling On-Chain is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent bitcoin market movements and estimate where we are in the cycle. This fifth edition first takes a...

Sep 01 2021

COC#4: On-Chain Silence Before The Storm

Low on-chain activity raises questions regarding current investor demand for bitcoin, but patient investors are increasingly accumulating.September 1, 2021Cycling On-Chain (COC) is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price- related data to better understand recent market movements and estimate where we are in bitcoin’s market cycle. This fourth edition briefly reflects on the recovering...

Aug 02 2021

COC#3: Squeezed Supply, Shorts and Bitcoin Lemonade

This third edition of Cycling On-Chain takes a closer look at bitcoin’s ongoing supply squeeze and recent short squeeze.Cycling On-Chain #3: LemonadeDilution-proof, August 1, 2021Cycling On-Chain is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent market movements and estimate where we are in bitcoin’s larger market cycle. After providing a...

Jul 01 2021

Cycling On-Chain #2: Bitcoin Enters Geopolitics

China cracks down against Bitcoin while El Salvador adopts it as legal tender; who’s making the right move?Dilution-proof, July 1, 2021Cycling On-Chain is a monthly series that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent market movements and estimate where we are in bitcoin’s larger market cycle. After providing a broader look back and forward...

Jun 01 2021

Cycling On-Chain #1: Unwinding Leverage

A reflection on the first large correction of and outlook for the remainder of 2021.Dilution-proof, June 1, 2021Cycling On-Chain is a monthly series that uses on-chain and price-related data to estimate where we are in bitcoin’s market cycle. It originally started as a monthly Twitter thread that...

May 21 2021

How Are Bitcoin’s Hash Rate, Difficulty And Fees Related?

The three mechanics are an important part of understanding Bitcoin on a technical level.Learning Bitcoin With Charts: How Are Hash Rate, Difficulty And Fees Related?Date: May 15, 2021Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism is one of its most important aspects, but learning how it works can be a daunting task. This article leverages on-chain data to visualize how this mechanism works and...

May 04 2021

After A Needed Break, The Bitcoin Price Still Has Gas In The Tank

What’s been behind the recent dips in the price of bitcoin, and what might the future potentially hold?Navigating the stormy seas of the bitcoin markets can be a challenge. Luckily, Bitcoin uses a publicly available blockchain that contains valuable information about all transactions that were ever made on the network. By combining this on-chain data with other price and market data, bitcoin...

Apr 28 2021

An Ode And Forthcoming Obituary To Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

A reflection on Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle—and how a healthy block space market will eventually kill it for its own good.Dilution-proof, April 28, 2021On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto launched the Bitcoin network by mining the first block (the “genesis block”) in the Bitcoin blockchain. Today, a bit more than 12 years later, the network stores over $1 trillion in value...

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